In bimodal areas, erratic early rains since late July prompted early plowing and planting for the second season. However, cumulative rainfall during the dry period in July and August remains globally below average in most of the country and, following the poor rainfall of the first rainy season from March to June, groundwater resources remain under pressure. pressure. Meanwhile, in eastern and northern Uganda which received localized heavy rains, more than 12,000 people were affected by landslides and flash floods. Forecasts available for the second rainy season from September to November 2022 indicate that cumulative rainfall will most likely be near average. However, below-average rainfall remains possible, which could lead to a fourth consecutive season of below-average crop production.
In Uganda’s far north, recent first-season harvests have increased household access to food and income. Despite this, many poor households are likely unable to meet all of their basic food and non-food needs due to poor first-season crop production, abnormally high food prices and below-average incomes. Area-level (IPC Phase 2) Stressed results are expected to persist at least until the start of the second season harvest in November/December. In other bimodal areas, minimal area-level outcomes (IPC Phase 1) are expected throughout the projection period, although increasing numbers of poor households are likely to experience Stress (IPC Phase 2) in areas affected by poor agricultural production.
In Karamoja, the cumulative rainy season rainfall from April to September is now expected to be below average despite an above average rainfall forecast from mid-August to early September. Although crop production is still expected to be below average due to reduced planted areas and damage from previous dry spells, late season rains will benefit pasture and water replenishment. Harvests in most areas have temporarily improved food consumption for some households. However, given below-average agricultural production, above-average prices, and below-average incomes, many households are likely to continue to face food consumption deficits and Crisis (Phase 3) outcomes. CPI) even in the post-harvest period. The results of the Crisis at the area level (IPC Phase 3) are expected to persist at least until January 2022, with the most affected households being in an emergency situation (IPC Phase 4). Levels of acute malnutrition remain atypically high in many regions.
Refugees living in camps continue to struggle to support themselves and invest in their livelihoods due to above-average prices. Among those growing food, stocks from below-average harvests have been depleted earlier than usual, and many are struggling to access seeds for the current second season. With most refugees heavily dependent on humanitarian aid, those receiving cash transfers are seeing their support decline due to inflation. Although stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) are expected in the area given the significant humanitarian food assistance, many of the most affected households are likely facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse. results and deterioration in nutritional status.